Future phosphate rock and fertiliser supplies a non issue
The world’s known, commercially usable reserves* of phosphate rock is conservatively estimated at 180 years given present use.
This is reassuring, given recent speculation that demand for phosphate fertiliser will outstrip supply within the next 25 years.
Where the misconception appears to have arisen was the recent publication of two scientific papers** which looked at global phosphate resources and potential demand for phosphate fertiliser globally.
The scientific papers were valid, forward looking documents forecasting on possible scenarios a quarter of a century into the future.
In the interpretation of the papers, what was tended to be overlooked was the difference between existing production capacity and reserves, and
- known resource which is commercially exploitable, but for which there is no present demand. On this basis, you can push known reserves given present use out to 450 years,
- known resource, which is not exploitable given present technology and commercial considerations. This pushes reserves out to 670 years.As with other core raw materials such as oil and gas, market forces will ensure production will increase to meet demand through
- previously non commercial fields being exploited, as technology or the economics of production improves and
- exploration will unearth new fields.On this basis it would be hard to put forward a case that the world is going to be short of phosphate fertiliser in the foreseeable future.
Some interesting issues the papers canvassed include:
World Demand
The World Bank is promoting the use of phosphate fertiliser among developing nations as a means of solving food shortages. This alone is anticipated to come close to doubling present world-wide fertiliser use in the next 25 years.
The World Bank’s position is an endorsement of the widespread use of phosphate fertiliser, and recognition of the role it will continue to play in feeding the world.
Main Suppliers
The world’s present “big four” suppliers are the United States, Morocco, Russia and China. Additional Australia production is forecast to come on stream before the year 2000, increasing current world production by 2.2 million tonnes, or about 5%.
Potentially, countries such as Brazil, Peru, South Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have the potential to be major suppliers.
Fertiliser Costs
As with all international raw commodities, the cost of phosphate rock and phosphate fertiliser will vary with supply and demand, and over the next 25 years it would be realistic to assume there will be highs and lows in international pricing.
However, price fluctuations will affect all countries, so whatever impacts on New Zealand farmers – and hence New Zealand food – will also to some degree impact on international food costs.
* World Wide Phosphate Rock Reserves, Lewis, 1993 ( MFG Report)
** Global Phosphate Resources, PJ Cook and Analysis of Potential Demand for Phosphate Fertiliser at the Global Level, CA Baanante & DT Hellums Phosphate Rock – World Wide Production & Resource
| Production (million tonnes) |
Commercial Resource * (years) | Total Reserves (years) | |
| Europe | 0.2 | 64 | 345 |
| Soviet Union (former) | 6.7 | 223 | 477 |
| North America | 14.3 | 94 | 566 |
| South America | 1.2 | 315 | 863 |
| Africa | 11.1 | 1165 | 1590 |
| Middle East | 3.3 | 358 | 1239 |
| Asia | 6.1 | 359 | 553 |
| Oceania | 0.4 | 170 | 1775 |
| World | 43.4 | 452 | 670 |
* Given present exploitation rates. All figures have been rounded.